As the dust settles from the shock of the Philippines’ midterm election, it is clear that President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and his dynastic rivals, the Dutertes, have fought to a stalemate, with both camps securing an equal number of Senate seats.
This political deadlock ensures that the immediate focus of national politics will revolve around the rivalry between the two powerful clans. For Marcos’ administration, pressing economic and foreign-policy issues are likely to take a back seat to two urgent priorities: removing Sara Duterte-Carpio from the vice-presidency, and preparing for the 2028 presidential race.
“All politicians’ attention will be on 2028, on who has the best chance of winning,” said Ronald Llamas, political strategist and former presidential adviser.
“Whether overtly or covertly, politicians will begin to gravitate to whoever is No 1 or No 2 in surveys for the presidential elections,” he told This Week in Asia.
Unfortunately for the Marcoses, early surveys have not been kind. President Marcos himself is barred from seeking re-election in 2028 by constitutional term limits, even if his popularity were higher. His cousin, House Speaker Martin Romualdez, has been floated as a potential contender, but his abysmal approval ratings – reportedly less than 1 per cent – make him an unlikely flag-bearer for the Marcos camp.
By contrast, Duterte-Carpio remains a formidable challenger, buoyed by the enduring popularity of her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte. “Her ratings have dropped but they’re still high,” Llamas said.
