A crane unloads peas imported from Canada at the Laizhou port area of Yantai Port in Yantai, China, on February 28, 2025.
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The clock is ticking on trade deals that the U.S. will need to strike with many nations, most notably China, to avoid what Trump’s Treasury Secretary has described as an “unsustainable” tariffs war. But in the U.S. farming sector, the damage has already been done and the economic crisis already begun.
U.S. agriculture exporters say the global backlash to President Trump’s tariffs is punishing them, especially a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products, leading to cancelled export orders and layoffs. Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, a leading export trade group for farmers, tells CNBC the number of canceled purchases of U.S. agriculture should not be described as approaching a crisis. “It is a full-blown crisis already,” he said.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday revealed China made its biggest cancellation of pork orders since 2020, halting a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork.
AgTC says “massive” financial losses are already being shared by its members as a result of the trade war, based on reports it is receiving from member companies.
A wood pulp and paperboard exporter reported to the trade group the immediate cancellation or hold of 6,400 metric tons in a warehouse and a hold of 15 railcars sitting in what is known in the supply chain as “demurrage,” when fees are charged for delayed movement of goods. Meanwhile, the exporter said there are 9,000 metric tons on the water to China expected to arrive on May 13 and facing the threat of costly diversion to Chinese bonded warehouses or to other countries as Chinese buyers may refuse the cargo and abandon it at port.
One grass seed exporter told AgTC it received two weeks notice that eight loads were being canceled by Chinese customers despite vessels bookings already being in place.
At a recent stakeholder meeting at the Port of Oakland headquarters regarding tariff impacts, Port of Oakland Executive Director Kristi McKenney warned that a tariff-induced downturn in the port’s cargo volume — whether from import slowdowns or retaliatory export losses — ultimately could jeopardize job stability and the region’s economic health.
McKenney cited retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, as well as manufactured goods, as essential exports that move through Oakland. Exports include almonds, beef, pork, dairy, and recycled materials, much of which is destined for Asia. China ranks as the port’s top import trading partner and third export partner, representing 29% of Oakland’s total trade volume.
Unlike many U.S. ports that lean heavily on imports, Oakland is unique in maintaining a near 50/50 balance of imports and exports. That leaves Oakland concerned that tariff retaliation would directly impact its top export destinations — Japan, Taiwan, China, and South Korea — and could significantly erode California’s market share for perishable and high-value commodities.
The Port of Oakland is the No. 1 refrigerated export gateway in the U.S and nearly all containerized cargo moving through Northern California goes through the Port of Oakland.
“So many local, union jobs depend on the Port’s robust shipping operations including dockworkers, truck operators, and warehouse workers,” said Democratic Party Congresswoman Lateefah Simon. “I support smart trade policies that uplift workers and lower costs for Oakland’s working families – not an illogical and retaliatory trade war.”
Workers are loading and unloading grain at the Yongan Port area of Taizhou Port Group in Taizhou, China, on March 7, 2024.
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Agricultural exporters are warning that there are not additional markets to quickly replace China’s demand and absorb the volume, and that is already impacting prices.
“We have diverted employees and production to other (less profitable) production and dramatically slowed down purchasing from independent venders (loggers, truckers, sawmills),” one lumber exporter reported to AgTC. Some products have already declined 20% in market value, the lumber exporter reported, which it said will influence inventory planning and future investments. “The U.S. market was stable and improving, but now awash with inventory of former China products,” it added.
An exporter of forage such as hay and straw that is a big business for U.S. farms supplying overseas livestock operations reported 68 blanked sailings after Trump’s “Liberation Day” limiting its ability to export forage goods, with vessel space for exports restricted on freight ships still calling on U.S. ports.
“The worry is the vessel space that remains is going to be the most expensive/most ‘premium’ services that our product cannot absorb without selling at a loss. Being a high volume, low value item, we cannot afford drastic increases in ocean freight,” the forage exported reported to AgTC.
There has been a sharp decline in China to U.S. vessel traffic, down 22.15% week-over-week and 44% year-over-year through April 14, according to the Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker.
“What we’ve seen in the last two weeks is a continued correction in booking demand for U.S. imports, especially U.S. imports from China,” said Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at Vizion. “We are now seeing this translate to a drop in departures as well,” he added.
A hay exporter in Central Washington that sends a large amount of its crop output to Hong Kong and mainland China was told to reroute most of the exports shipped in the past two weeks to Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, and a few Chinese ports. Those changes came a cost to the company, and it told the AgTC, “it’s not sustainable, no one can replace all the volume that China buys.”
The hay exporter immediately put a stop on all orders in process, and has begun layoffs.
“We had to adjust our employee count down by 12 persons. This accounts for one-fourth of our total employees,” it wrote. The company said it has been communicating to customers and employees a hope that “hasty and reckless decision-making at the top of our country will reverse, easing deep troubles that we are facing at this time.”
In addition to the tariff backlash, agriculture is facing another looming financial challenge with the recently announced SHIPS Act measures approved by the US Trade Representative, with Chinese-made vessels calling U.S. ports to be charged port fees of upwards of $1.5 million starting in the fall.
Bulk agriculture was carved out of the port fees imposed under the USTR rule, but agriculture shipped in containers is not exempt from the fees. Friedmann said an exemption is essential because the most valuable U.S. agriculture exports are shipped in containers, not bulk.
Containerized exports include refrigerated beef, pork, poultry, fruit, vegetables, dairy, and processed foods such as french fries. Cotton, forage (hay, alfalfa), nuts, dried dairy, lumber, paper, and soybeans for human consumption are also shipped in containers. “Efforts to exempt all agriculture exports, including containerized agriculture, are continuing,” Freidmann said.
Based on U.S. trade data, the share of U.S. agriculture moved in containers is approximately 25% by volume and nearly 55% by value.
The USTR did not respond to a CNBC request for comment on fee exemptions for containerized agriculture.
“So much of our future lies in the hands of so few,” a hay exporter wrote to AgTC. “We plead for those few to take a very long careful look at what can be done to keep shipments flowing while they work out the trade imbalances and perceived differences.”
