Trump signed orders expanding tariff exemptions for goods from Canada and Mexico this week
Gold prices rose on Friday supported by heightened geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index. In the UAE, gold rates experienced a modest uptick today. The price for 24-carat gold increased by AED0.75, reaching AED350.25, while 22-carat gold saw a rise of AED1, bringing it to AED326. Additionally, 21-carat gold went up by AED0.75 to AED312.50, and 18-carat gold edged higher by AED0.50, now priced at AED267.75. Meanwhile, spot gold remained mostly stable at $2,913 per ounce, while April Gold Futures rose by 0.1 percent to $2,920.55 per ounce as of 01:26 ET (06:26 GMT).
Tariffs and inflation impact
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams acknowledged that Trump administration tariffs could add inflationary pressure, though he emphasized uncertainty regarding their impact. Global central banks continued their strong demand for gold, adding 18 tons in January 2025, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). This follows three consecutive years of over 1,000 tons of official purchases. Uzbekistan’s central bank led buying with an 8-ton increase in reserves, while China added 5 tons, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic asset.
India’s gold demand showed improvement in the latter half of the period but remained subdued as prices retreated from all-time highs. Despite this, Indian gold imports are expected to drop by 85 percent in February to their lowest level in 20 years. Domestic traders offered discounts between $12-$27 per ounce, down from the previous week’s $35 discount. Meanwhile, Chinese gold remained at a discount of up to $3 per ounce, reflecting weak demand. The WGC expects India’s gold consumption to moderate from 2024’s nine-year peak of 802.8 tons to a range of 700-800 tons in 2025, with investment demand expected to remain strong.
Technically, gold remains in a fresh buying phase, with open interest rising by 1.9 percent to 14,837 contracts. Immediate support is at 85,555, with further downside at 85,075, while resistance is seen at 86,330, and a breakout could push prices toward 86,625.
Gold prices saw a slight increase on Thursday, boosted by a retreat in the U.S. dollar. Investors are keenly awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data set to be released on Friday to evaluate the U.S. Federal Reserve‘s interest rate path, particularly amid escalating global trade tensions.
Trump administration’s tariff adjustments
U.S. President Donald Trump has signed orders significantly expanding the goods exempted from his new tariffs on Canada and Mexico imposed this week. It is the second time in two days that Trump has rolled back his taxes on imports from America’s two biggest trade partners, measures that have raised uncertainty for businesses and worried financial markets. On Wednesday, he said he would temporarily spare carmakers from 25 percent import levies just a day after they came into effect. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum thanked Trump for the move, while Canada’s finance minister said the country would in turn hold off on its threatened second round of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday morning he had had a “colourful” conversation about tariffs in a phone call with Trump. The U.S. president used profane language more than once during Wednesday’s heated exchange, according to U.S. and Canadian media reports.
Trudeau told reporters that a trade war between the two allies was likely for the foreseeable future, despite some targeted relief. “Our goal remains to get these tariffs, all tariffs removed,” he said. A first round of Canadian retaliation targeting CAD30 billion ($21 billion, GBP16 billion) of U.S. goods is already in effect. The trade war tensions have rattled markets and raised fears of economic turbulence. On Thursday afternoon, the leading U.S. stock indexes were all lower, with the S&P 500, which tracks 500 of the biggest American companies, ending down nearly 1.8 percent.
Employment data shows mixed signals
Data released by ADP Research indicated that the U.S. private sector added 77,000 jobs in February, following the creation of 186,000 jobs in January. This figure fell significantly short of the anticipated 140,000. However, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI increased to 53.5 in February, surpassing forecasts of 52.6. Meanwhile, the ISM Services Employment Index rose to 53.9 in February from 52.3 in January.
Euro strengthens against dollar
The Euro (EUR) surged to a four-month high against the U.S. dollar (USD), in line with the rise in German bund yields after political parties in Germany reached an agreement on a substantial spending plan aimed at bolstering the Eurozone’s largest economy. The increase in German bund yields has driven global yields upward, including U.S. Treasury bond yields, which could limit the recovery of the gold price.
Read more: UAE gold prices up AED0.25, global rates rise on dollar weakness
Market anticipates key payrolls report
The market is now focusing on the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to reflect a gain of 160,000 jobs for February. Spot silver decreased by 0.1 percent to $32.6 an ounce, platinum remained stable at $965.6, and palladium rose by 0.2 percent to $944.00. In the interim, the mid-tier U.S. Jobless Claims data and any further developments regarding tariffs from the Trump administration will be closely monitored for their potential impact on the USD’s performance and gold price movement. The forthcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision could dampen the EUR/USD rally and trigger a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Should this occur, a corrective move lower in gold price could follow, interpreted as a profit-taking decline ahead of the crucial U.S. payrolls data on Friday.
