WHY THIS MATTERS: If Pokrovsk falls, it could pave the way for Russia to take the rest of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, a key goal of President Vladimir Putin. The fate of the city also could influence U.S. perceptions about the war and sway the course of peace negotiations.
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A critical moment for the future of Ukraine’s Donetsk region is approaching as the battle for the city of Pokrovsk reaches a key stage, with Russian and Ukrainian forces so enmeshed that in some cases they’re vying for control of the same residential building, soldiers and analysts told The Associated Press.
But far from the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, Pokrovsk is also critical to a diplomatic struggle, as both Russia and Ukraine attempt to convince U.S. President Donald Trump that they have the upper hand in the fighting and the other side is weaker.
Russia says its forces have surrounded Pokrovsk and thwarted a Ukrainian operation to reopen logistics lines into the city. Ukraine denies there’s a blockade, describing the fighting as ongoing, with its forces inflicting heavy Russian losses.
Russian forces entered Pokrovsk last month, taking advantage of gaps in Ukrainian defenses to slip through the lines, and appear poised to seize all of it in the coming weeks or months, experts say. Ukrainian commanders on the ground admit the outlook is bleak.
“As of now there are no clear lines of defense, none that can obstruct soldiers from coming into the city,” said Serhii Filimonov, a commander of Ukraine’s Wolves of Da Vinci battalion. In an interview last week, he estimated the Russians control more than 70% of Pokrovsk.
And Zelenskyy on Friday admitted Ukraine is in a difficult situation.
“The enemy began assault operations on the 5th (of November) and has continued conducting assaults … They have lost equipment, but the enemy’s number-one goal is to occupy Pokrovsk as quickly as possible. That goal remains,” he told reporters in Kyiv.
Russians advancing meter by meter
Russia’s recent success in Pokrovsk is the result of more than a year of grinding battles in which its forces advanced 39 kilometers (24 miles), according to calculations by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine disclose their casualty figures comprehensively, but analysts say that thousands of soldiers have been killed.
The operation progressed, meter by meter, until last month when Russian assault groups overcame worn-down Ukrainian defenses.
In response, Ukraine deployed its elite units, launching a special operation last week to counter potential advances. Commanders warn that the intense street-to-street fighting is reaching a critical point.
Pokrovsk sits along the eastern front line, part of what has been dubbed the “fortress belt” of Donetsk, a line of heavily fortified cities crucial to Ukraine’s defense of the region, including Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Druzhkivka.
Pokrovsk, which had a prewar population of 60,000, once served as a crucial logistics hub for Ukrainian forces. However, Russia used its artillery to establish an advantage over key routes, denying Ukrainian forces the ability to move freely, conduct evacuations and ferry in supplies.
High stakes at the negotiating table
Pokrovsk is no longer just a battlefield for territory, but also a key setting intended to influence U.S. perceptions and sway the course of peace negotiations, analysts say.
Russian President Vladimir Putin claims his forces are on the cusp of winning. As a prerequisite for peace, he demands that Ukraine cede the Donbas, made up of Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk, one of his key war aims.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, faced with U.S. pressure at times to accept Putin’s terms, has sought to show Trump Russia is not winning. Armed with maps of the front line, Zelenskyy has softened Trump’s ever-shifting stances.
“Imagine how many Russian forces there are. But at the same time, they do not have the planned result. In my opinion, they do not have such a result that they can ‘sell’ to the Americans,” said Zelenskyy at a briefing with reporters last week, when around 200 Russian soldiers breached Pokrovsk’s defenses.
“We understand why they need Pokrovsk. They only need it to say – look, after all, the idea that Ukraine leaves the east and gives everything else that they want is the only possible one, otherwise they will supposedly capture more,” he said.
Despite Zelenskyy’s bullish assessment, the loss of Pokrovsk would be very damaging for Ukraine, said Peter Dickinson, Ukraine editor at the Atlantic Council think tank in the U.S.
“Trump does not like losers … he likes to be with the winners … This will be portrayed by the Russians as a major victory,” he said.
If Pokrovsk falls, it could pave the way for Russia to take the rest of the Donbas. But, those advances, like the battle for Pokrovsk, will take time and come at enormous cost in manpower and military equipment.
“What this means politically, of course: Russia will beat the drum that they’ve achieved a big victory … And they will say, look, we can take all of Donbas but in how long and at what cost? They will not say,” Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Dickinson said most of the logistics around Pokrovsk, such as roads and railways, have been destroyed, and the city is no longer as strategically valuable to the Ukrainians as it was.
“It’s primarily a propaganda victory, a symbolic victory, a sort of a psychological victory, perhaps, for the Russians. They need to be able to show that – Putin desperately needs to be able to show that they’re making progress,” he said.
‘All units that can battle are here’
Russian forces continue to advance from the north, west and east of Pokrovsk, according to experts, while Ukrainian forces maintain some pockets of control. Ukraine poured in more troops and its military intelligence directorate launched a counteroffensive operation earlier this month in an effort to hold the city for as long as possible.
“All units that can battle are here right now, infantry, special forces and everybody else,” said Vadym Krykun, the commander of the Lyubart brigade. “Everyone is doing their part.”
Hus, a Ukrainian drone operator in the 68th brigade, identified only with his call sign in line with military protocol, says Russia’s deployment of an elite drone unit has been especially devastating. “It’s become a duel of drone operators,” he said.
The next few weeks will likely unfold in the same way as most battles for territory in the region, experts said: Russia will pour troops into the parts of the city under its authority until Ukrainian forces are overwhelmed.
In the meantime, Ukrainian forces will fight to extract as many losses as possible until the need for withdrawal can no longer be avoided.
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