The US dollar edged lower against major currencies on Friday after President Donald Trump succeeded in pushing through his sweeping tax legislation, amid mounting pressure on countries to quickly strike trade agreements with Washington.
The greenback had posted gains on Thursday following stronger-than-expected jobs data, which delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the dollar index, which tracks the currency’s performance against a basket of major peers, remains on track to record its second consecutive weekly decline.
The Republican-controlled House narrowly passed Trump’s signature bill, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Law,” which combines sweeping tax cuts and expansive spending. The bill carries an estimated cost of \$3.4 trillion, pushing the U.S. national debt to \$36.2 trillion. Trump is expected to sign the bill into law on Friday.
With U.S. markets closed in observance of Independence Day, attention now turns to the looming July 9 deadline, when Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs are set to kick in for countries that haven’t secured trade agreements — including Japan.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, commented: “Demand for the dollar is easing amid growing concerns over ballooning U.S. debt, and whether there’s enough appetite to absorb it. There’s also worry that the tariff framework and trade disruptions will weigh on growth, while the Fed’s ability to support the economy remains limited by persistent inflation risks.”
The dollar’s performance in the first half of the year has been its weakest since 1973, as Trump’s chaotic tariff strategy rattled markets and raised questions about U.S. economic stability and the safety of Treasury bonds. Earlier this week, the greenback fell to its lowest levels in over three years against both the euro and the British pound.
The dollar index dipped 0.1% to 96.96, trimming Thursday’s 0.4% advance. The euro rose 0.1% to \$1.1773, heading for a 0.4% weekly gain.
The Japanese yen climbed 0.4% to 144.375 per dollar, while the Swiss franc extended gains, rising 0.2% to 0.7939 per dollar.
Trump said several countries would receive letters on Friday detailing the tariff rates they will face — a shift from his earlier preference for individual bilateral deals.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU aims to reach a preliminary agreement with the U.S. before the deadline. Japan, which has been in Trump’s crosshairs recently, plans to dispatch its chief trade negotiator to Washington as early as this weekend.
Adding to global trade tensions, China announced it will impose tariffs of up to 34.9% on European brandy for five years starting July 5.
Investors worried about the state of the U.S. economy found some relief on Thursday, after Labor Department data showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June — beating forecasts of just 110,000.
Hirofumi Suzuki, chief currency strategist at SMBC, noted: “The U.S. labor market is slowing gradually, but the fact that there wasn’t an abrupt deterioration is reassuring.”
“Personally, I expect trade talks to yield little progress, which should keep the dollar weak and support the yen.”
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady at its July meeting rose to 95.3%, up from 76.2% on July 2.
Economists continue to expect that the Fed is unlikely to begin cutting rates before September — or possibly even later in the year.
