A report by Rystad Energy stated that the Middle East is rapidly advancing toward overtaking Asia to become the world’s second-largest natural gas producer by 2025, behind only North America. Gas production in the region has grown by about 15% since 2020, reflecting the efforts of regional countries to better utilize their gas reserves and boost exports to meet rising global demand.
Strong Growth in Production and Exports Through 2035
Middle Eastern countries currently produce about 70 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) of gas, and this figure is expected to rise by 30% by 2030 and 34% by 2035, supported by large-scale projects in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. Rystad projects the region will add 20 billion additional cubic feet per day by 2030 — equivalent to half of Europe’s current gas demand.
This scenario assumes Brent crude prices stabilize at $70 per barrel and oil-linked gas prices remain between $7 and $9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). If prices drop below $6, new projects may be delayed and projected growth could fall below 20%.
Export Boom and the Goal of Becoming a Global Energy Hub
With expanding production, the region is preparing to boost gas exports by 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, strengthening its position as a key supplier to European and Asian markets. Data show steady annual production growth of 6%, bringing the total to 90 billion cubic feet per day by the end of the decade.
Half of the expected production increase is set to meet rising domestic demand, especially from the industrial sector, while the other half is allocated to exports under long-term contracts — enhancing the region’s strategic role as a reliable energy hub.
Low-Cost Projects Driving Growth
Much of this boom relies on projects capable of producing gas at a cost below $5 per thousand cubic feet, making them resilient to price fluctuations. Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are leading this wave of growth. Qatar is expanding its North Field to increase its LNG production capacity by 80%, from 77 to 142 million tons per annum (Mtpa) by the end of the decade, with production costs under $6 per MMBtu.
While prices falling below this level would pose a challenge to investments, the low production costs of Middle Eastern projects shield them from severe slowdowns, allowing growth to continue even in a low-price environment.
Massive Investments Through 2028
By 2028, the region is expected to add 60 million tons per year of new capacity — about 40% of the global growth forecast (150 Mtpa). The bulk will come from Qatar, which will add 48 Mtpa through the North Field East and South projects. The UAE will contribute 10 Mtpa via the Ruwais LNG project, while TotalEnergies will add one million tons from the Marsa LNG project in Oman. Investments in these projects are expected to exceed $50 billion.
Iran and Qatar Lead Production… But a Shift in Leadership by 2030
Currently, Iran leads the region with production of 25 billion cubic feet per day, followed by Qatar at 16 billion, and Saudi Arabia at 8 billion. Despite Western sanctions, Iran’s output is expected to rise only 6% by the end of the decade to about 26 billion cubic feet per day, due to reliance on the South Pars field, which recently faced a partial shutdown after an Israeli attack.
In contrast, Qatar is expected to grow by nearly 50% to reach 24 billion cubic feet per day, driven by the North Field expansion. Saudi Arabia and the UAE will each add about 3 billion cubic feet, while Israel will increase its production by 1.5 billion through expansions at the Leviathan and Tamar fields. Qatar is likely to overtake Iran in production in the early 2030s.
Long-Term Asian Contracts Strengthen the Gulf’s Position
Data show that many new long-term LNG supply contracts from Qatar and the UAE are primarily directed at Asian and European markets, with a strong focus on Asia. Sales and purchase agreements total about 21 million tons per year between 2027 and 2030, with major Chinese firms and global energy companies emerging as key buyers.
