The US dollar found some support on Monday after a disappointing US jobs report on Friday and President Donald Trump’s abrupt dismissal of a top labor statistics official, which had delivered a blow to the currency and fueled investor bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.
Data released on Friday showed that job growth in the US fell short of expectations in July, with prior non-farm payroll figures for the two previous months revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs—pointing to a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions.
“Perhaps the report itself wasn’t extremely weak, but the revisions were highly significant,” said Mohamed Elsarraf, FX strategist at Danske Bank. “It’s hard to imagine the Fed not cutting rates in September.”
Adding further pressure to markets, Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) chief Erica McEnturfar on the same day, accusing her of manipulating employment figures.
The surprise resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler also opened the door for Trump to exert greater influence on the central bank sooner than expected, amid ongoing tensions with the Fed over what he perceives as delays in rate cuts.
These back-to-back developments dealt a double blow to the greenback, which slumped more than 2% against the yen and around 1.5% against the euro on Friday.
On Monday, the dollar clawed back some losses, rising 0.3% to 147.91 yen in latest trading, though still nearly three yen below its Friday peak.
The euro dipped 0.2% to $1.1561, while the British pound was little changed at $1.3276.
Trump said on Sunday that he would announce nominees for both the vacant Fed seat and a new BLS chief in the coming days.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, rose 0.2% to 98.88 on Monday, after sliding more than 1.3% on Friday.
In July, the dollar posted a 3.4% gain—its biggest monthly rise since a 5% surge in April 2022 and its first monthly increase of 2025—buoyed by growing market confidence in Trump’s trade policy and the resilience of economic data in the face of tariffs.
US Bond Yields Slide as Rate Cut Bets Surge
The 2-year US Treasury yield fell to a three-month low of 3.659% on Monday as traders sharply raised bets on a September rate cut. The benchmark 10-year yield also hovered near a one-month low at 4.2434%.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 90% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates next month, based on weak labor data, with around 60 basis points of easing priced in by December. That implies two 25-basis-point cuts and a 40% chance of a third.
“The market reaction to Friday night’s events was swift and decisive—stocks collapsed, the dollar slumped, and yields fell,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
Dollar Rises Against Franc on Tariffs; Switzerland Considers Options
Elsewhere in FX markets, the dollar rose more than 0.5% against the Swiss franc after Trump imposed some of the highest tariffs yet on Switzerland, part of a broader White House effort to reshape global trade.
The euro also gained 0.3% versus the franc.
“We saw a sharp pullback in the franc after the announcement. If these tariffs are sustained, the negative impact on the Swiss economy will be relatively significant,” said Danske Bank’s Elsarraf.
The Swiss government said it would hold a special meeting later Monday to discuss next steps, stating in a press release that it remained open to revisiting its trade proposal to the US.
