US employment growth probably decelerated in April and the jobless rate held steady, illustrating healthy yet moderating labour demand entering a period when trade policy risks chilling hiring decisions.
The data due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics offers the first look at the labour market since the Trump administration imposed expansive punitive tariffs. The surveys behind the report were conducted the second week of April, when Trump put some levies on hold and sharply raised those on Chinese goods, creating heightened uncertainty among businesses big and small.
“Immigration and trade restrictions are likely to weigh on payrolls in the coming months, but we do not think they‘ll have a substantial impact in April,” Shruti Mishra, an economist at Bank of America who anticipates a 165,000 payroll gain, said in a note. “That said, risks are to the downside.”
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