US president Donald Trump’s tariffs could mean less money in UK consumers’ pockets, Bank of England experts have warned.
Tariffs could hit growth and pose “substantial” risks to the UK and world economies, the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey has said.
His colleagues added trade frictions could hurt companies in the UK and elsewhere.
Bailey urged for trade disputes to be settled globally, and stressed the importance of trade.
The US has been ratcheting up trade tensions, and this week imposed new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and doubled the levy recently put on Chinese goods.
Speaking to MPs about the effects of Trump tariffs, Bailey said: “The risks to the UK economy, and indeed the world economy, are substantial.”
When asked whether Trump tariffs could mean less money in UK consumers’ pockets, Bailey said “Yes. We serve the people, and we have to take it very seriously”.
Megan Greene, a member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, said there is a lack of certainty about how far the US will go in implementing tariffs, and about how countries will respond.
But tariffs could affect the UK economy in a number of ways, she said.
If there are tariffs imposed on UK goods going into the US, this would “put downward pressure” on the UK economy, because firms would find it harder to sell to US consumers.
But that could also lower inflation, the pace at which prices rise.
If supply chains fragmented and had to be reordered this would hit UK growth and push up inflation.
“Ultimately, tariffs would push down on growth”, Greene said, adding that there was a “tonne of uncertainty” about how Trump’s tariffs would play out, but there would probably be more negatives for UK the economic activity than positives.
Professor Alan Taylor, who is also a monetary policy committee member, agreed the risks to the economy outweigh the upsides, and that “is true for people around the country and around the world”.
He added: “If you put sand in those wheels [of trade] we’re going to be worse off on some margin.”
Bailey said he agreed “very strongly” with the assessment of the committee members.
“Trade supports growth. Openness supports the spread of innovation and ideas,” he said.
Bailey called for trade disputes to be settled via the World Trade Organization, rather than thrashed out between the US and other countries.
Mr Trump and his administration have said higher tariffs on goods imported into the US will help it get better deals with allies and rivals around the world.
But experts have warned that trade barriers could hurt the US, triggering higher prices and more inflation, as well as hitting economies around the world.
Separately, Bailey also warned of risks should the US leave institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which lend to countries to try to avert financial crises.
Some of Trump’s allies, including key White House staff, have previously recommended withdrawing.
Bailey said the move would be a “very damaging thing for the world”.
But he said he “strongly” welcomed news that the new US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, “believes in multi-lateralism”, or collectively coordinated action.
