KARACHI: After showing mixed trends in recent days, cotton prices have experienced a decline, with the spot rate dropping by PKR 200 per maund. Market analysts report that uncertainty persists regarding cotton production, leading to concerns among farmers and traders.
The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) and Punjab Crop Reporting agencies have presented their respective estimates on cotton production, revealing significant discrepancies. Experts suggest that upcoming reports will clarify which assessment holds true.
Head Transfer of Technology Central Cotton Research Institute Multan Sajid Mahmood said that the Ministry of Food Security’s zero-tolerance policy against substandard seeds is being hailed as a crucial move for the cotton sector.
Farmers and industry stakeholders have welcomed the initiative, with experts stating that it could prove to be a beacon of hope for the future of cotton.
Another major challenge for farmers is the sharp rise in fertilizer prices. Authorities are taking measures to address the issue, but growers are demanding immediate price reductions to lower production costs.
According to the Meteorological Department, rainfall continues in lower regions of Sindh, with a new spell expected from August 17. Experts say these rains could have either positive or negative effects on the cotton crop, necessitating close monitoring.
A significant disclosure by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) regarding cotton consumption has stirred fresh activity in the market. Analysts are assessing the potential impact of this report.
Field formations in Punjab have been assigned a special task to achieve the target of procuring 55 lakh cotton bales. Iftikhar Ali Sahoo, Secretary Agriculture Department Punjab, confirmed that all necessary measures are being taken to meet this goal.
The cotton market witnessed mixed trends this week, with prices fluctuating significantly. Over the past three days, a downward trend dominated, with rates varying by nearly Rs 700. Mills are exercising caution in procurement due to forecasts of rain between August 17 and 22.
Similarly, ginners are also adopting a cautious approach, leading to reduced trading volumes.
Uncertainty persists regarding cotton production estimates, with the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) and Punjab Crop Reporting Service presenting differing projections. The next 15-day cotton production report will provide further clarity on their respective stances.
In related developments, Federal Chairman of the National Food and Research Centre, Rana Tanveer Hussain, convened the fourth meeting of the National Seed Development and Regulatory Authority Board. The session focused on improving the viability of cotton seeds, with decisions made to implement positive measures for seed enhancement. Efforts are also underway to control the soaring prices of fertilizers.
Meanwhile, continuous rainfall has been reported since Friday in several cotton-growing regions of Sindh, potentially impacting crop conditions. Market participants remain watchful of weather developments and their influence on future supply and pricing.
In Sindh, after market fluctuations, cotton prices remained between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,300 per maund, while Phutti was traded at Rs 7,000 to Rs 7,700 per 40 kg.
In Punjab, cotton prices settled between Rs 16,100 to Rs 16,400 per maund after volatility, with phutti rates ranging from Rs 6,500 to Rs 7,700 per 40 kg.
Similarly, in Balochistan, cotton was in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,300 per maund, and phutti traded between Rs 6,800 to Rs 7,800 per 40 kg.
Meanwhile, the Spot Rate Committee of the Karachi Cotton Association reduced the spot rate by Rs 200 per maund, closing it at Rs 16,200.
Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum Chairman Naseem Usman said that cotton prices remained between 67 to 71 US cents per pound due to a decline of 14 lac bales produced in US as compared to last month.
According to the USDA’s weekly export and sales report, 242,000 bales were sold for the 2025-26 season. Vietnam led the purchases with 119,200 bales, followed by Bangladesh at 40,200 bales. Turkey secured the third position with 20,700 bales, while Pakistan ranked fourth with 15,600 bales.
For the 2026-27 season, 1,100 bales were sold, all of which were purchased by Japan.
Sajid Mahmood, Head of the Technology Transfer Department at the Central Cotton Research Institute Multan in a telephonic conversation with renowned cotton analyst Naseem Usman stated that in a recent meeting held at the Ministry of National Food Security and Research important decisions were taken to improve the quality of seeds of various crops including cotton and to protect farmers’ interests. He said these decisions are not only essential to safeguard farmers from substandard seeds but are also of fundamental importance for increasing cotton production and ensuring the stability of the national economy.
Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain made it clear on the occasion that a zero tolerance policy would be adopted against poor quality seeds and that farmers’ interests would always be placed above commercial interests. The meeting approved key measures including strict monitoring of seed companies, transparency in the registration standards for new companies and the introduction of a truth and labelling system for cotton which will help ensure the supply of quality and certified seeds to farmers.
Sajid Mahmood said that such decisions are of great significance for economic prosperity and particularly for the revival of cotton. He emphasized that the strict monitoring of seed companies and the implementation of the Truth and Labelling System is a breakthrough that will directly benefit farmers and provide a solid foundation for improving cotton production.
He further remarked that the fact cannot be ignored that alongside quality seeds substantial investment in research and development is indispensable for the revival of cotton. Without continuous development of new cotton varieties resistance against pests and diseases and research aligned with climate change the sustainability of this vital crop cannot be ensured. For this purpose the textile industry must play its role by ensuring the payment of its long pending cotton cess arrears under the July 9, 2025 agreement between PCCC and APTMA and by facilitating the recovery of cess from textile mills. These resources are crucial for strengthening research institutions like the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee and for delivering improved seeds and technology to farmers.
According to a USDA report, Pakistan’s cotton consumption for 2024-25 stood at one crore and fifty five lac bales (each weighing 155 kg), with an estimated consumption of one crore and fifty two lac bales projected for 2025-26. However, this data has raised eyebrows as APTMA claims nearly 100 textile mills in the country have shut down, prompting questions about how such high consumption is being recorded.
The USDA reported that Pakistan imported approximately 82 lax bales of cotton last year, while the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) stated the domestic production for the 2024-25 season was 55 lac bales and if unregistered bales will be included then as per, sources estimate total production will be in between 75 to 80 lac bales. Adding imports of 82 lac bales to domestic output of 82 lac bales brings the total supply to one crore sixty two lac bales, yet the USDA’s reported consumption remains at 15.2 million bales.
For the 2025-26 season, the USDA estimates Pakistan’s cotton consumption at 15.5 million bales. If domestic production remains between 7.5 to 8 million bales, total supply would reach 16.5 million bales, yet the USDA maintains its consumption estimate at one crore fifty five lac bales. Meanwhile, yarn and fabric imports have surged this year, further complicating the figures.
These statistics have sparked debate, as Pakistan’s cotton consumption has traditionally been estimated at one crore twenty five lac bales. This discrepancy raises questions about the accuracy of the reported data.
In a related development, a provincial-level committee meeting on cotton crop management was held at Agriculture House, Lahore, chaired by Punjab Agriculture Secretary Iftikhar Ali Sahu. The meeting reviewed the current cotton situation, with briefings on early cotton picking, production, and quality.
Secretary Sahu stated that field formations have been assigned a special task to achieve Punjab’s cotton production target of 55 lac bales this season.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
