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Home » We’re raising price target on GE Vernova by $150 after blowout earnings
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We’re raising price target on GE Vernova by $150 after blowout earnings

adminBy adminJuly 23, 2025No Comments6 Mins Read
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GE Vernova shares rallied more than 15% to a new all-time high Thursday after the power equipment maker reported strong results and raised guidance — “maybe the best story in the entire market,” Jim Cramer said . Revenue for the three months ended June 30 increased 11% year over year to $9.11 billion, topping expectations of $8.8 billion, according to LSEG. Organically, revenue increased 12%, beating the 10.6% Street estimate, according to FactSet Orders increased 4% organically to $12.4 billion, driven by strong demand for power and electrification solutions. Analysts often focus on orders to gauge demand, versus sales, which could be the result of fulfilling past orders. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) hit $1.86, exceeding the $1.51 estimate, LSEG data showed. GE Vernova Why we own it : The company has several powerful secular tailwinds going in its favor, including the need for more reliable power and electrification, especially as AI drives up demand for energy-intensive data centers. GE Vernova may also prove a beneficiary of deals as countries work with the Trump administration to reduce bilateral trade deficits. Competitors : Siemens Energy , MHI Most recent buy : May 19, 2025 Initiated : May 13, 2025 Bottom line Expectations were high heading into the print: GE Vernova shares were less than 5% off their all-time highs and up more than 100% from April lows. That’s why we chose to trim our position last week. In hindsight, that may appear to be the wrong move, given Wednesday’s price action. But we aren’t going to beat ourselves up over what is still a big win. Our view is that discipline trumps conviction. And talk about a strong showing. GE Vernova leaped over the market’s high bar by delivering strong order growth and robust EBITDA margin expansion. “This era of accelerated electrification is driving unprecedented investments in reliable power, grid infrastructure, and decarbonization solutions,” CEO Scott Strazik said on the post-earnings call with investors. GE Vernova’s electrification equipment backlog increased by $2 billion in the quarter, with strong demand coming from Europe, North America, and Asia. Demand is also accelerating in the Middle East, with management highlighting a deal with Saudi Arabia for grid stabilization equipment expected to result in $1.5 billion in order volume in the current (third) quarter. On the call, Strazik said technologies like synchronous condensers, which are needed to increase power grid stability, “have been a small market over the last decade, but we see this as a credible $5 billion market opportunity a year going forward and are investing in positioning our businesses to serve this opportunity.” Data center electrification demand isn’t showing any signs of slowing, with management calling out nearly $500 million in orders for the first half of 2025, compared to $600 million for the entirety of 2024. On the backlog, which represents potential future revenue as orders are fulfilled, GE Vernova’s combined equipment and services backlog expanded to nearly $129 billion, up $5.2 billion sequentially and up over 11% from a year ago, driven by power and electrification. An estimated $9.6 billion increase to the total power backlog and $6.7 billion increase to the total electrification backlog were partially offset by an estimated $3.3 billion decline in the total wind backlog. Management returned roughly $450 million to shareholders during the quarter via dividends and buybacks. With about $8 billion in cash on the balance sheet, no debt, and positive cash flows, GE Vernova is well positioned to keep returning cash to shareholders while maintaining investments in future growth. As a result of the growing backlog and strong end market demand, we are increasing our price target to $700 from $550. However, we are keeping our 2 rating given the stock’s massive run on Wednesday. We’ll wait for a pullback before adding to our position. GEV 1Y mountain GE Vernova One Year Return Guidance Management raised its outlook for the year, and now expects revenue to come in at the higher end of the previously stated $36 to $37 billion range. On the EBITDA margin, the team is now targeting a range of 8% to 9%, representing an increase to the low end of the previous target for “high-single digits.” Free cash flow guidance was also increased to a range of $3 to $3.5 billion, up from the prior range of $2 to $2.5 billion. Segment guidance was updated as follows: Power: 6% to 7% organic revenue growth versus “mid-single digit” growth previously forecast. EBITDA margin of 14% to 15%, up from 13% to 14%. Wind: Still expecting an organic revenue decline in the mid-single digit range. The team is now expecting the segment EBITDA loss to track closer to the bottom of the previously provided $200 to $400 million range. Electric: Now targeting organic revenue growth of approximately 20%, up from the prior guide for a mid-to-high teens percentage increase. Segment EBITDA margin is now expected to be between 13% and 15%, up from 11% to 13%. Segment results Power: Revenue growth driven by demand for gas power HA (high efficiency, air-cooled) turbine deliveries and services growth. Orders increased 44% organically to $7.1 billion, with gas power equipment orders increasing nearly threefold. Services orders up 4% organically, led by steam power. EBITDA of $778 million as the EBITDA profit margin expanded to 16.4%, a 260 basis point increase versus the year ago period (or 40 bps on an organic basis) due to positive pricing dynamics, better productivity, and increased volumes in gas power and steam power. Wind Revenue growth driven by an increase in onshore wind equipment volume in North America. Orders fell 5% organically to $2.1 billion due largely to a decline in onshore wind equipment demand outside of North America. EBITDA loss of $165 million due to increased onshore wind services costs, which contributed to an EBITDA margin contraction of 160 bps (200 bps organically) versus the year-ago period. Electrification Revenue growth driven by the grid solutions business. Orders fell 31% organically, reflecting the value of large equipment orders in the prior year period. However, management did highlight sustained strong demand for grid equipment, most notably in Asia. EBITDA of $322 million benefits from margin expansion of 740 bps year over year, to 14.6%, thanks to higher volume, increased productivity, and positive pricing, primarily in grid solutions. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long GEV. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.



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