First, the good news. As New York’s intense season of art fairs and auctions kicks off, fine art seems to be spared from the new US trade tariffs. Thanks to historic laws cited in the White House’s latest legislation, artworks are protected as “informational material”, an exemption rooted in the US First Amendment, which covers free speech.
There remains, however, deep unease in an already weakened art market over the impact of the baseline 10 per cent tariff on other imports and about what regime will emerge after the current 90-day pause. “It’s so painful,” says Hugh Gibson, director of London’s Thomas Gibson Fine Art, ahead of showing at this year’s Tefaf New York fair (May 9-13). “I don’t know how any shipper, or anyone, is meant to implement any of this.”
Many gallerists, shippers, customs brokers and art advisers have fast had to become experts on the niche legal code that is 50 USC 1702 (b). Adam Green, a Dallas-based adviser, says: “I almost pulled an all-nighter. I had clients who had recently bought from the London auctions and were in the process of shipping [to the US]. Everyone was trying to figure it out.” In the end, he says, “it became apparent that because of this strange clause, artworks — and items such as CD-ROMs and microfiches — were exempt”.
This is now the basis on which he and the rest of the trade currently rely. But the current White House administration is not known for its consistency and the on-off ride that President Trump’s tariffs have inflicted on markets means all advice comes with a bold health warning. The historic code “would be complicated to unwind”, says Edouard Gouin, chief executive and co-founder of the fine art logistics group Convelio, but his guidance to gallery clients is that “recent days have shown anything remains possible”. As Nigel Dunkley, co-director of London’s Union Pacific gallery, put it ahead of showing at Frieze New York: “Who knows if Trump will slap on 300 per cent tariffs tomorrow? It’s the wild, wild west.”
While fine art is looking exempt, other areas of the trade — notably furniture, antiquities and broader collectibles — are seemingly not under current guidelines. This could impact Tefaf New York, whose 91 exhibitors include seven design galleries and five others who specialise in antiquities or jewellery, mostly from the UK and Europe. Fair director Leanne Jagtiani is, like many, in a holding pattern with exhibitors: “We will continue to monitor the situation regarding Tefaf New York and its wider implications,” she says in a statement. An email from Frieze New York’s directors, sent to exhibitors in April, advised “As the tariffs are subject to changes in the coming weeks and months, we strongly encourage you to be in touch with your nominated shipper as soon as possible for further guidance”.
Meanwhile, the shipping company DHL has warned of “multi-day delays” and has suspended its business-to-consumer shipments to the US valued above $800, the threshold at which customs clearances are now needed (previously $2,500). And the exemption on art built into the fabric of the US legislation is unlikely to apply within any reciprocal reactions. “There is growing speculation that if the UK or EU retaliate then artwork is likely to be included,” Green says.
Such uncertainty has already taken its toll. “From what I can tell, there is an exemption around art, but I feel clients might not know that,” Dunkley says. One of his deals, on a work valued at $90,000, has already been cancelled, “with an excuse based around the tariffs”, he says. The international gallerist Thaddaeus Ropac says that the prospect of tariffs has not changed the content of the works they are bringing to Frieze, but, Ropac says, “we didn’t know if we would have to pay tariffs on arrival, for example, so we have reduced the amount we are sending.”
Others are postponing transit plans until the last possible minute, in the hope of more clarity. For the shippers, “right now there isn’t a huge amount of impact on our business but we would be lying to ourselves if we said it wasn’t going to have any effect,” Gouin says.
In the meantime, gallerists have been going down rabbit holes in terms of possible ramifications. To Tefaf, Gibson is taking work by the American sculptor John Chamberlain — some of his trademark crushed metal works — and paintings and works on paper by the French Jean Dubuffet. “If there are tariffs, which there might not be, Chamberlain is OK as the works were made in the US and are coming from his estate,” he says. “But what happens with Dubuffet? One of his works is currently in the UK, having been bought from the US, but the artist was from France. So could there be a 20 per cent tariff? Or 10 per cent? And when would this apply? When we bring the works in? If so, there would be a lot of empty booths [at art fairs]. One would hope that tariffs would only be applicable at point of sale, that’s the logical scenario, but we are not in a logical world.”
More broadly, there are concerns about the economic ripple effects of the volatile situation, which range from paralysis to an all-out recession. As well as the baseline 10 per cent tariff, the US’s escalating trade war with China means there are currently hits of at least 125 per cent each way. Businesses with global supply chains will feel the pain and have no idea what is coming next. “Certain [US] collectors are in the clothing business and import from Vietnam [potential tariffs 46 per cent]. I know someone who owns a sushi restaurant and gets fish from Japan [24 per cent]. Macro issues will have a significant effect on the art market,” Green says.
Even for those not directly affected, the backdrop is grim, including instability on stock markets worldwide. “We have tried to contact clients but they have other things on their minds,” Ropac said in April. “People are not in the mood to purchase art, they are nervous about the situation.” Meanwhile, US politics beyond economics, such as Trump’s ideological stance against “wokeness” in the creative industries, are playing on the minds of many in the art market.
Nevertheless, as ever, there is a degree of optimism in the run-up to May’s events, with gallerists identifying a few silver linings. The weaker dollar “might make our prices look more attractive”, Dunkley says, something that has benefited art sales in the past. Of his smaller shipment, Ropac says that “at least my new head of environmental sustainability is pleased, she is always trying to get me to reduce our footprint”. Green says that the spirit of collaboration, as witnessed during the Covid-19 pandemic, was intense, “with everyone on WhatsApp groups trying to figure out what was happening”.
Green also identifies a buying opportunity, for those who are up for it. “People were already more cautious, but there is still a lot of demand for high quality,” he says. Plus, others say, art could be one of only a handful of tariff-free goods in circulation. It might be clutching at straws, but ahead of the trade’s bellwether season, it is enough to keep it going.
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