Bitcoin came under renewed pressure on Thursday, trading near 110,600 dollars and testing its main ascending trendline support. Rising geopolitical tensions and renewed trade friction between the United States and China have weakened risk appetite among investors, limiting momentum in high-risk assets.
According to a report from Copper Research, Bitcoin could retest the 100,000-dollar level before regaining upward momentum.
Slowing Price Recovery Amid Weak Risk Appetite
Bitcoin’s rebound slowed this week as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with renewed trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, pushed the world’s largest cryptocurrency to around 110,600 dollars on Thursday.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Russia on Wednesday of “potential consequences” if it continues its aggression in Ukraine, while President Donald Trump said earlier this week that he is considering supplying Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk missiles.
Meanwhile, the US–China trade conflict deepened as both sides imposed reciprocal port tariffs this week. Trump described the relationship with China as a “full-scale trade war” and said he is considering halting cooking oil trade with Beijing in response to its refusal to buy American soybeans.
In contrast, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed suspending US tariffs on Chinese imports for more than three months if Beijing abandons its plans to impose strict export restrictions on rare earth elements.
This combination of geopolitical and trade conflicts between the world’s two largest economies has created uncertainty and risk aversion across markets — conditions that typically weigh on high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Copper Report: A Healthy Corrective Pullback Possible
Copper Research’s Tuesday report suggested that historical patterns point to a potential short-term dip, projecting a retest of the 100,000-dollar level this month — near long-term support around the 52-week moving average. The firm noted that similar corrective phases occurred in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
The report stated: “A decisive break below the 52-week average would represent a structural market shift similar to those seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, which is unlikely to occur before 2026.”
Fadi Abu Alfa, head of research at Copper, told FXStreet: “Despite recent market turbulence, Bitcoin’s movement remains consistent with long-term patterns converging near the 52-week average. With strong ETF inflows and supportive technical indicators, a temporary pullback toward 100,000 dollars should be viewed as a healthy correction rather than a cause for concern.”
Optimism Indicators: Funding Rates Fall to Lowest Since FTX Collapse
Despite pressure, some signs of optimism have emerged. A wave of leverage unwinding has triggered unprecedented stress in futures markets, with funding rates falling to levels unseen since the FTX collapse in late 2022.
Annualized funding rates have turned deeply negative, meaning traders are paying a premium to maintain short positions after excessive long positions were flushed out. This marks a sharp sentiment shift as participants reduce risk amid forced liquidations.
Historically, such extreme conditions often represent peak fear and the final phase of deleveraging — typically paving the way for a medium-term recovery.
Technical Outlook: Momentum Indicators Point to Further Correction
Bitcoin faced rejection at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 115,154 dollars on Tuesday, falling about 4% the following day.
At the time of writing, the price was trading around 110,600 dollars, approaching the ascending trendline.
If the price breaks and closes below the trendline, the decline could extend toward daily support at 107,245 dollars — close to the 200-day EMA at 108,084 dollars.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 indicates growing bearish momentum, while the MACD has maintained a negative crossover since last week, reinforcing the corrective outlook.
On the upside, if the price regains strength, it may retest the 50-day EMA near 115,154 dollars.
