Bitcoin prices showed little movement on Thursday, while the broader cryptocurrency markets remained trapped in a narrow range amid persistent concerns over rising US tariffs, prompting investors to remain risk-averse.
Reciprocal tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump officially went into effect on Thursday, imposing levies ranging from 10% to 50% on several major global economies. On Wednesday, Trump also announced a 100% tax on all semiconductor imports, set to be enforced in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin rose by 0.3% to $114,521.4 as of 01:31 a.m. Eastern Time (05:31 GMT).
Bitcoin Stuck in Tight Range Amid Tariff and Economic Uncertainty
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has mostly traded between $110,000 and $115,000 over the past week, as overall risk appetite weakened.
While there have been some bullish signals — notably continued accumulation by major holders such as Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Metaplanet Inc (Tokyo: 3350) — these factors have not been enough to spark a breakout, especially after Bitcoin’s pullback from record highs above $123,000 in mid-July.
Broader risk sentiment has been dampened by concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs, alongside signs of slowing global growth.
Last week’s disappointing US employment data was a key flashpoint for markets. While it boosted expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, it also raised fears of a broader slowdown in the US economy.
Although crypto markets are not directly impacted by tariffs or economic data, their speculative nature makes them sensitive to swings in market sentiment.
Bitcoin has also faced persistent profit-taking following its recent highs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Four Straight Days of Outflows
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows for four consecutive days through Tuesday, with a total of nearly $1.5 billion exiting the funds, according to data from aggregator SoSoValue.
While there was a modest $91.55 million inflow on Wednesday, it was not enough to offset prior outflows.
Trump’s Tariff Threats Weigh on Bitcoin Sentiment
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs came into effect Thursday. Over the week, Bitcoin traded within a narrow band between $113,000 and $116,000, highlighting market indecision as traders awaited a major catalyst. Any new trade-related developments could trigger fresh volatility in crypto markets.
According to research firm K33 Research, Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility hit a one-year low of 1.33%, while its 7-day volatility stood at 1.2%, following a nearly two-year low of 0.76% recorded on July 30 — the lowest since September 2023.
Despite the lack of a clear trend and subdued volatility, growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in September is adding optimism for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, market participants now see over a 90% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in its next policy meeting. Traders also expect at least two more 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.
Separately, a $58 billion US bond auction showed the weakest foreign demand in a year, forcing domestic banks and investors to absorb the excess — an early signal that if the trend persists, the Fed may face pressure to resume quantitative easing, a scenario that could boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge.
Signs of Rebounding Institutional Demand
Data from SoSoValue shows tentative signs of institutional interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a modest $91.55 million inflow on Wednesday, ending the four-day outflow streak. However, flows remain well below levels seen around July 10 — just before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $123,218 on July 14.
Low-Volume Price Zones Emerge as New Accumulation Ranges
Analytics firm Glassnode reported Wednesday that Bitcoin has dropped below the lower limit of the current accumulation zone at $116,000, entering a low-liquidity “air gap” region between $110,000 and $116,000. Historically, such zones often become accumulation areas where buyers step in at perceived discounts.
The report also noted that the short-term holder (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) dropped to 45%, below the neutral threshold, indicating a relatively balanced market. Around 70% of the short-term Bitcoin supply remains in profit, with a near-even mix between profit-taking and loss realization.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Continued Consolidation Likely
Bitcoin closed below the lower consolidation boundary of $116,000 at the end of July, then dropped about 3% over the next two days to test its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $113,182. This EMA aligns closely with the prior swing high of $111,980, marking a key support area.
Prices have since rebounded slightly and were trading around $114,900 as of Thursday.
If Bitcoin manages a daily close above $116,000, it could target the key psychological level of $120,000.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 50, signaling market indecision, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish after a negative crossover on July 23.
If Bitcoin closes below the 50-day EMA at $113,182, further downside could test the prior peak from May 22 at $111,980.
