ISLAMABAD: Floods finally take their toll on prices of essential commodities, as inflation benchmark Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 5.6 percent on a year-on-year basis in September 2025, as compared to 3.0 percent in the previous month.
According to figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on a month-on-month basis, CPI increased by 2.0 percent in September 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.6 percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.5 percent in September 2024. The CPI was 6.9 percent in September 2024.
CPI inflation (urban) increased by 5.5 percent on a YoY basis in September 2025, as compared to 3.4 percent in the previous month and 9.3 percent in September 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.5 percent in September 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.7percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.5percent in September 2024. Whereas the CPI inflation (rural) increased by 5.8 percent on a YoY basis in September 2025, as compared to an increase of 2.4 percent in the previous month and 3.6 percent in September 2024. On a MoM basis, it increased by 2.8 percent in September 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.5 percent in the previous month and in September 2024.
Sensitive Price Index-based inflation on a YoY basis increased by 4.5percent in September 2025 as compared to an increase of 2.6 percent a month earlier and an increase of 9.2percent in September 2024. On a MoM basis, it increased by 2.0 percent in September 2025 as compared to 3.2 percent in the month earlier and an increase of 0.2percent in September 2024.
Whole Price Index inflation on YoY basis increased by 0.6 percent in September 2025 as compared to a decrease of 1.0 percent in the previous month and an increase of 1.9 percent in September 2024. On MoM basis, it increased by 0.5 percent in September 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the previous month and 1.1 percent in September 2024.
Measured by non-food non-energy urban inflation increased by 7.0 percent on a YoY basis in September 2025 as compared to 6.9 percent in the previous month and 9.3 percent in September 2024. On a MoM basis, it remained stable at 0.3 percent in September 2025 as well as in the previous month, and an increase of 0.2 percent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., September 2024.
Measured by non-food non-energy rural inflation, it remained stable at 7.8 percent on a YoY basis in September 2025 as well as in the previous month, and an increase of 12.1 percent in September 2024. On a MoM basis, it increased by 0.6 percent in September 2025 as compared to 0.2 percent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5 percent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., September 2024.
Core inflation (trimmed) urban increased by 5.7percent on YoY basis in September 2025, as compared to 4.2 percent in the previous month and 7.1percent in September 2024. On a MoM basis, it increased by 0.3 percent in September 2025 as compared to no change in the previous month and a decrease of 0.1percent in the corresponding month of last year, ie, September 2024. Whereas core inflation (trimmed) increased by 6.5percent on a YoY basis in September 2025 as compared to an increase of 3.6 percent in the previous month and 7.4 percent in September 2024. On MoM basis, it increased by 0.7percent in September 2025 as compared to an increase of 0.3percent in the previous month and a decrease of 0.1percent in the corresponding month of last year, i.e., September 2024.
On a MoM basis, prices of tomatoes increased by 65.04 percent, wheat 37.58 percent, wheat flour 34.43 percent, onions 28.48 percent, fresh vegetables 9.03 percent, wheat products 6.86 percent, potatoes 5.72 percent, eggs 4.49 percent, butter 3.55 percent, sugar 2.74 percent, rice 2.59 percent, Gur 1.50 percent, pulse gram 1.45 percent, besan 0.98 percent and fresh fruits 0.92 percent. Whereas prices of chicken decreased by 5.33percent, pulse mash 1.17percent, beans (0.66 percent), gram whole 0.40 percent, pulse moong 0.22 percent, and cooking oil 0.01 percent.
Among non-food items, on a MoM basis, liquefied hydrocarbons increased by 4.54 percent, postal services 1.36 percent, drugs and medicines 0.96 percent, household textiles 0.84 percent, marriage hall charges 0.69 percent, medical tests 0.68 percent, solid fuel 0.62 percent, household servant 0.56 percent, and construction input items 0.53 percent. Whereas on the MoM basis, electricity charges decreased by 4.60 percent, transport services by 1.45 percent, and textbooks by 1.01 percent.
On a YoY basis, in September among food items prices of tomatoes increased by 48.73 percent, sugar by 28.49 percent, butter by 27.03 percent, honey by 17.92 percent, wheat by 17.52 percent, gur by 14.72 percent, pulse moong by 14.72 percent, wheat flour by 13.53 percent, dessert preparation by 13.39 percent, condiments and spices by 11.47 percent, vegetable ghee by 10.74 percent, mustard oil by 9.00 percent, cooking oil by 8.82 percent and meat by 8.80 percent. On a YoY basis, prices of onions decreased by 39.99 percent, Pulse Mash by 23.76 percent, pulse gram by 21.75 percent, besan by 18.93 percent, tea by 17.75 percent, gram whole by 14.89 percent, potatoes by 14.39 percent, pulse masoor by 5.66 percent, chicken by 5.46 percent, wheat products 4.34 percent, beans by 2.92 percent, and fresh vegetables 1.55 percent.
Among non-food gas charges increased by 22.91 percent, household textiles by 13.80 percent, water supply by 12.86 percent, footwear by 12.69 percent, and newspapers by 11.93 percent. On a YoY basis, electricity charges decreased by 18.51 percent, textbooks by 8.72 percent, and Liquefied hydrocarbons by 3.32 percent.
The Asian Development Bank, in its September outlook, projected inflation forecast to 6 percent in FY26. However, experts believe that since the weightage of food and non-alcoholic beverages is 40 percent in CPI, there is a likelihood that the inflation figures might exceed the projections of the government and the State Bank of Pakistan.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
