Indian consumption stocks await a tax-cut bump

This report is from this week’s CNBC’s “Inside India” newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

It has been over a month since India unveiled its Union Budget, which offered a massive tax relief aimed at boosting urban consumption. The move, however, has done little to lift consumer stocks.

The Nifty FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) index — which captures 15 stocks listed on India’s National Stock Exchange — rose over 3% as the budget was tabled on Feb. 1. This rally, however, quickly fizzled out.

The index has declined in 18 out of the 23 sessions following the budget boost and is down nearly 9% so far this year, compared with the 4.72% drop in the Nifty 50 Index.

The expectation was for shares to rally as investors factored in higher consumer spending once tax cuts come into effect in April. However, investors have had to curb their enthusiasm due to a confluence of factors.

Many consumers are likely to pocket the higher disposable income resulting from these tax cuts, or spend the money on non-FMCG goods such as motor vehicles, according to Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities.

“It’s not an overnight thing, where FMCG stocks will rise now with the tax cuts and RBI’s [Reserve Bank of India] rate cut. It will take some time to see the impact,” Bathini said.

Higher valuations have also dimmed the appeal of many FMCG stocks, analysts said.

Another reason for their underperformance is the “reasonably high penetration level” of certain personal and home-care products, said Pramod Gubbi, co-founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. This implies that companies have already captured a sizable market share, leaving little room for further growth.

Source: NSE Statistics

“Indian FMCG companies have had anemic volume growth even before the recent consumption slowdown set in the July to September quarter,” Gubbi added.

Companies such as Nestle India — with popular brands like Maggi, Nescafé and KitKat under its umbrella — have also been targeting consumers with higher disposable incomes who can spend on premium products.

Data from the World Bank shows that India’s GDP per capita grew 7.1% in 2023 from a year ago to $2,200.

Many companies were banking on a “premiumization wave.”

They expected consumers to seek better products as they became more affluent, but sales have not met expectations, Gubbi told CNBC’s Inside India.

The growth of direct-to-consumer firms has also taken revenue away from FMCG companies with traditional sales channels, he added.

Since February, shares in ITC — the top holding in the Nifty FMCG index with a 30.7% weight — have slumped 12.3%, while Hindustan Unilever (20.2% weight) has lost 11.4%. Other top-weighted companies such as Tata Consumer Products and Nestle India have declined 10.5% and 5.4%, respectively.

WealthMills Securities’ Bathini noted that the earnings outlook for FMCG companies was not particularly bright.

“Consumer stocks like Hindustan Unilever, Godrej Consumer Products and others were facing some kind of margin pressure because of the weak demand — which was also seen in the second-quarter GDP numbers,” Bathini told CNBC’s Inside India.

However, he added that the faster growth seen in fiscal third-quarter GDP could signal “some kind of improvement” in the consumer-focused companies’ results.

India’s GDP data for the quarter ending December showed a 6.9% year-on-year growth in private consumption, up from 5.9% three months earlier.

The question for investors is whether they should bet on the FMCG sector — or look elsewhere.

With consumption trends “still patchy at best across segments,” said Harsha Upadhyaya, chief investment officer at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, adding that FMCG stocks would “need better earnings growth and/or lower valuations for sustained performance.”

“Without this, the stocks may be range-bound or in line with market movement,” Upadhyaya told CNBC’s Inside India.

For instance, Hindustan Unilever trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.5, compared with the Nifty 50 index P/E of nearly 20.

Marcellus’ Gubbi is positive on specific segments within the consumer space, rather than the sector as a whole, highlighting food and beverage as well as kitchenware — which are still growing, given lower barriers to entry and sales on e-commerce platforms.

Perhaps, the lesson for investors looking to find bargains in India’s consumer sector is to be as discerning in their stock selections as they are in their weekly grocery shopping.

India Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal visits Washington Monday. The minister is expected to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnic to discuss a trade agreement, according to an official. Goyal’s visit occurs just weeks before reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. come into force, which means Indian goods imported into the U.S. would face high levies, leading to approximately $7 billion in annual losses for India, Citi estimated.

U.S. wants zero tariffs on car imports in India. As part of a potential trade deal between Washington and New Delhi, the Trump administration is pressing the latter to remove its tariffs on automobile imports. However, India is reluctant to accede to that request, although it is open to lowering levies further, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the matter. Removing auto tariffs in India — which are as high as 110% — will smoothen Tesla’s entry into the market. The Elon Musk-founded company is preparing to start selling its electric vehicles in India.

India to remain crucial to the global supply chain. The South Asian nation has the highest average tariffs on U.S. goods, so it comes as little surprise that U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to slap India with retaliatory import levies. However, India is becoming increasingly important for manufacturers diversifying from China, which means tariffs might not diminish New Delhi’s importance as a production hub, said Charles van der Steene, president of North America for Maersk.

British smartphone startup Nothing looks to India. Nothing, which launched its new Phone (3a) device on Tuesday, is targeting the Indian market, according to Ben Wood, chief analyst at market research firm CCS Insight. The company experienced 557% year-over-year growth in India last year, making Nothing the fastest-growing smartphone brand in 2024, founder Carl Pei said in January. Furthermore, the company’s co-founder Akis Evangelidis plans to move to India to head up operations there later this year.

Indian stock are showing signs of a pick up, after the Nifty 50 index closed at 22,544.70, rising just under 1% from the week before.
The benchmark 10-year Indian government bond yield edged down slightly to 6.687%.

In CNBC TV this week, Michel Doukeris, CEO of the world’s largest brewer AB InBev, said that India is “one of the big markets for growth in the future.” The South Asian nation is already the third-largest global market for Budweiser — and with India’s “very young” and urbanizing population that is experiencing an increase purchasing power, there is a “massive opportunity” for the brewer. However, obstacles such as high regulation and taxes on alcohol mean the road ahead won’t be completely smooth sailing.

Meanwhile, CNBC’s Seema Mody reported that investors are rethinking their exposure to emerging markets because of Trump tariffs, and taking note of which countries are most and least dependent on the U.S. India, however, “continues to be a head scratcher.” The results of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to negotiation an agreement with Trump are still uncertain, weighing on Indian stocks. Moreover, the country’s equities are overvalued compared with that of China, even after the latter’s rally in tech stocks last week, an analyst said.

The U.S. economy is in focus this week, with February’s jobs data out this Friday and the consumer price index on Wednesday. China and India also release inflation reports for February on Sunday and Wednesday respectively. 

March 7: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February, China balance of trade for January to February

March 8: U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech

March 9: China inflation rate for February

March 11: U.S. job openings and labor turnover data for January, Japan household spending for January, gross domestic product final for fourth quarter

March 12: India inflation rate for February, manufacturing and industrial production for January, U.S. consumer price index for February

March 13: U.S. producer price index for February