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Home » Currencies of Trump’s Tariff Targets Slump With Levies Looming
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Currencies of Trump’s Tariff Targets Slump With Levies Looming

adminBy adminJuly 1, 2007No Comments4 Mins Read
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(Bloomberg) — The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso slumped after President Donald Trump affirmed the launch of 25% tariffs on products from both nations beginning Tuesday, the latest in a string of trade announcements from the administration that have buffeted investors in the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market.

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The loonie dropped as much as 0.6% to 1.4542 and the peso slid 0.9% to 20.75 against the US dollar on Monday, touching the weakest levels since Trump’s previous tariff deadline — for early February — caused traders to sell the Canadian and Mexican currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared an earlier loss and was down 0.5% while the S&P 500 saw the worst selloff of the year.

The moves came as Trump told reporters on Monday that there was no room for Canadian or Mexican officials to negotiate a reprieve from the levies, which are slated to go into effect on March 4.

“Markets had expected some concessions — either another punt or a lower-than-25% tariff rate,” said Shaun Osborne, the chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. “Sliding US yields and weaker US stocks suggest markets are wary of the negative repercussions of hefty tariffs on Canada and Mexico on key industrial sectors in the US very quickly.”

The White House also said Monday that Trump had signed an order to raise levies on China to 20% from 10%, according to a post on X from the White House’s Rapid Response account. China’s yuan weakened 0.2% to its session low versus the dollar in the offshore market.

Tariff risk has flared repeatedly for the two currencies this year. The administration postponed a previous tariff deadline on Canada and Mexico due to go into effect in early February, though levies on China were enacted.

Some market participants expected more volatility on Tuesday.

“Given this language from the White House this afternoon, signs point to a very dollar-positive open tomorrow,” said Helen Given, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex. “The next session is going to be very volatile and the moves on the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso this afternoon could just be the beginning.”

Traders in options underlying the foreign-exchange market have steadily built up hedges against losses in the loonie and peso in recent weeks. The options bets showed traders loading up on protection against weakness in those currencies against the dollar, even as they were more sanguine on risks to China’s yuan.

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An options gauge shows that expectations for losses in the Mexican peso are greater than they were when tariff fears flared in January, with risk reversals for the Mexican currency trading above 3% on Monday favoring calls – a sign of traders bracing for downside.

Even so, some said traders may not have hedged enough. Ning Sun, a senior emerging-market strategist at State Street Global Markets, said investors may have been too complacent regarding a 25% tariff against Mexico. On a spot basis, the Mexican peso is up about 0.8% against the dollar this year. Investors owning the currency in a so-called carry trade against the dollar have earned around 2.5%, thanks to the peso’s comparatively high yield.

“Volatility on Mexican assets is unlikely to come down until a new deal on USMCA,” said Sun, referring to the review of the North American trade deal signed during the first Trump administration. Sun recommends clients go long Colombia’s peso against the Mexican one.

Others were skeptical the measures would be longstanding.

“Even if we get tariffs, the market should price in some probability that they are removed soon, given how disruptive they might be for the US economy,” said Erick Martinez Magana, a strategist at Barclays. “The MXN will probably continue to trade inside the recent range.”

–With assistance from George Lei and Maria Elena Vizcaino.

(Updates throughout.)

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©2025 Bloomberg L.P.



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