The Maersk Halifax, on the Central and South America route, berths at the Qianwan Container Terminal of Qingdao Port in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, on November 10, 2024.
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Prepare for higher prices to hit soon.
From retailers, including Target — whose CEO said prices could rise within days — to major business lobbies such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which said tariffs “only raise prices,” that is the message being issued to consumers in response to President Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada. And while the White House says inflation is not a concern, at the heart of the global supply chain, the message being sent to the U.S. economy matches that of retailers and trade groups: inflation is coming.
Maersk, the second largest ocean shipping company in the world, says the new tariffs on Mexico and Canada — and the escalating trade war between the North American nations with Canada already responding with its own set of tariffs and Mexico planning to act soon — is an inflationary threat to the U.S. economy.
“The short-term effect of any tariff clearly is inflation,” Charles van der Steene, president of Maersk North America, said during an interview at the TPM Conference in Long Beach, California, a major annual convention for the logistics industry. “It’s inflationary in its essence.”
At midnight, Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, plus 10% on Canadian energy products and an additional 10% on Chinese goods, took effect.
Overnight, Canada launched its retaliatory tariffs, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying there would be 25% tariffs on more than $100 billion of American goods over the course of 21 days. Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said retaliatory tariffs will be announced on March 9. China announced its new tariffs on U.S. goods, which will start on March 10.
As the global trade tariffs add up, Maersk expects the inflationary impact will persist over the mid- to long-term. But van der Steene said that “the expectation is that the effect will ultimately soften.” Over the longer term, he said there is greater uncertainty about tariffs and the repatriation of potential supply chains.
While recent survey data, and commentary from retailers such as Target, have pointed to a weakening consumer, van der Steene said the strength of the U.S. consumer remains a silver lining amid the trade war.
“We continue to see the U.S. consumer and the U.S. market overall to be extremely resilient and strong,” said van der Steene. “Consumer consumption has continued to be strong, not just in the last quarter but over the last six quarters. And it’s been a big motor behind the U.S. economy overall.”
More international retailers, as an example, have been coming to the U.S. market due to its consumer strength relative to other markets.
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said tariffs are not inflationary and there will be a clear reset on trade policy with reciprocal tariffs policy starting April 2.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs are unlikely to raise inflation, in part because China will “eat any tariffs that go on.”
“These countries have used us and abused us,” Lutnick said on CNBC. “That is going to change. It’s unbelievable the way we get ripped off around the world and Donald Trump is going to level set it, make it reciprocal and make it fair.”
On average, the world imposes tariffs more than twice as high as those applied by the U.S. on imports, but broad comparisons leave out important details in trade relationships: many countries impose significantly higher tariffs on products such as food, garments, alcohol, and tobacco to protect local industries or regulate consumption, with targeted tariffs highlighting the strategic role trade policies play in global markets.
India, which has the highest average tariffs on U.S. goods, has been a beneficiary of manufacturers expanding their capacity outside of China, and this industrial migration has attracted investments by companies including Maersk, which recently announced plans to invest $5 billion in India, focusing on terminal infrastructure and inland logistics.
Trump has threatened tariffs on India as well as part of the broader retaliatory tariffs plan being contemplated by the Trump administration.
Van der Steene said while tariffs on India might have a short-term effect, the ultimate importance of India within the global supply chain from a production capacity standpoint, and balancing some of the capacity away from China, “is such that we don’t expect that this will have a longer-term effect as to how the global supply chain and trade is built up. We believe fundamentally that global trade is for the benefit of all, everywhere,” he added.
The trade war and tariffs have been a source of concern for the maritime and transport sector, with the risk of a pullback in consumer consumption potentially translating into fewer freight orders, especially after the frontloading done by many shipping clients ahead of the new administration’s tariff plans.
